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Basketball Winning in New Zealand, but short on Points

andrewbprice — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 06:22:22 +0000

EDITOR: This post was written by Kahn Hart and is also available on his website. Kahn has written previously on this site and is an expert on basketball in New Zealand, so if you like his work, make sure you also read this article and follow him on Twitter (@KahnJHart). Thanks Kahn for another fantastic feature article!

On Thursday 9,150 people packed in to Vector Arena in downtown Auckland to watch the New Zealand Breakers – playing in their second consecutive National Basketball League Grand Final series, going blow for blow with the Perth Wildcats.

There are many things that are remarkable about that first paragraph, firstly there is a basketball team from New Zealand who are the benchmark team of the Australian NBL, one of the better leagues in the world. Secondly they are playing in their second straight Grand Finals Series – both times with home court advantage. Thirdly there were over nine thousand people at a basketball game in New Zealand! Heck, eleven years ago I was sitting at O’Ryan’s Stadium in Mt Albert watching the Auckland Stars take on the Waikato Titans in a battle of NZ’s two powerhouse teams. There were 300 odd people in attendance.However perhaps the most impressive thing about it all is that the Breakers team is built upon a foundation of talented Kiwi players – Mika Vukona is the heart and soul of the team and a player that if he were 3 inches taller would likely be plying his trade in the National Basketball Association. Dillon Boucher is a do it all undersized point forward who is one of the most respected defenders in the league. Alex Pledger is a seven foot one man mountain who continues to develop into one of the best big men in the league. The injured Tom Abercrombie is the league’s most dynamic player and with his improving jump shot, is blossoming into one of Australasia’s finest players. Throw in solid role players Benny Anthony Jr, Leon Henry and development players Dion Prewster, Josh Bloxham and Isaac Fotu and you have a team where nine of the thirteen players on the roster are Kiwi’s. Sure imports Gary Wilkinson and Cedric Jackson are amongst the best pair of imports in the league and CJ Bruton, while in the twilight of his career, is without doubt a future hall of famer. But this house is built on Kiwi product.

With the Breakers success journalists are gushing about how far the game has come and they are not mistaken. The game is in great shape, the sports’ governing body Basketball NZ along with SPARC have appointed a board made up of wise heads working hard at steering the organization ahead from an administrative perspective. We are seeing an abundance of incredibly talented, incredibly tall young players emerging at the power forward and center positions, an area that NZ has struggled in as far back as I can remember.

You have Rob Loe, a guy who is a shade under seven foot and starting for an NCAA tournament team, the Saint Louis Billikens. Then you have University of Hawaii-bound Isaac Fotu who is six foot seven and can comfortably play small forward as well as the four and five spots and will likely surprise alot of people in the US when he turns out for the Hawaii Warriors in the Wester Athletic Conference next season. Easily the most heralded big of them all is University of Pittsburgh-bound Steven Adams, the six foot eleven kid from Rotorua who can run, jump, shoot, pass and defend so well that he is considered one of the top 3 best centers in the world and a lock to be an NBA lottery pick whenever he decides the time is right to make the jump. Add Pledger and Anthony to that mix and the Tall Blacks have a stable of super talented front court players who could stand firm against most nations in the world. Gun shooting guard Kirk Penney, Abercrombie and Vukona have the wing spots taken care of but after that it gets a little murky.

Point guard is the most important position in basketball, the guy charged with ensuring all of those long athletic players around him receive the ball in positions where they can do damage. Currently the Tall Blacks have Lindsay Tait, Jarrod Kenny and Mark Dickel at the one spot. Dickel in his prime was one of the best pure point guards in international basketball, he led the NCAA in assists during his 1999 season with UNLV and has performed at a high level in some of Europe’s top leagues. Lindsay Tait has dominated in the NZ NBL since he emerged with the Auckland Stars in 2000 and has plied his trade in Switzerland and the Australian NBL for a number of teams. Kenny is an athletic player who is a solid lead guard in the NZ NBL.

Of NZ’s available point men, Injuries have slowed Dickel meaning he is no longer able to play at the breakneck speeds he did in the early to mid 2000′s and at 35 is unlikely to be a factor for NZ internationally for too much longer. Tait has never quite been able to translate his dominance of the NZ league into great individual success internationally, although he always wears the black singlet with pride and plays admirably when he’s called on to run the offense. Kenny is a player who is realistically no better than a solid national league player who has flirted with the Australian NBL and with all due respect is out of his depth facing the top point guards in international basketball. These players along with Mike Fitchett, Paul Henare and Jeremy Kench have ensured the Tall Blacks have always been competitive against most sides they’ve faced but have never quite been able to take NZ to that next level.

Of great concern is that there doesn’t appear to be any player likely to step into the point guard spot for NZ in the next few years. NZ just doesn’t seem to be developing any world class point men capable of feeding the abundance of tall athletic big men that are emerging. Josh Bloxham is being nurtured well by the NZ Breakers and looks like he could become a decent player at the ANBL level but at 22 and with his lack of great production with the Nelson Giants in the NZ NBL one would have doubts as to whether he will be the answer to our point guard woes. Behind Bloxham there are very few young point guards getting minutes in the NZ NBL. Zane and Zeke Meehl of Manawatu have come through the QBL system in Australia and look like they could prosper into good NZ NBL players but look to be a while away from Tall Black selection yet.

Evidence of the lack of young point guards in this country can be seen with the NZ Junior Tall Blacks side playing at the Albert Schweitzer Tournament in Mannheim, Germany this week. The team finished dead last in the competition and didn’t have a single player average more than 2 assists per game. Tai Webster who is a good scoring shooting guard led the team with 1.8 assists per game but also averaged 4.8 turnovers per game. As a team the JTB’s averaged 7.6 assists per game compared to 26.2 turnovers per game, to put those stats in perspective – Italian point guard Matteo Imbro averaged 7 assists per game alone to lead the tournament.

One has to wonder what has been done to identify and nurture young playmakers in this country, we are clearly doing well in developing big men and we have some talented scorers coming through in the wing positions but we just cannot seem to produce even one pure point guard who looks capable of being the heir to the Tall Blacks throne currently occupied by Tait and Dickel. Maybe we have players who are physically made up to play point guard internationally and who have the required skill set but just don’t possess the confidence to get it done a high levels that kids of a similar age from say, New York City or Spain may have.

The word is that Dickel is back in New Zealand with the intent of helping develop young local players in the Otago region, this can only be a good thing. A solution to the problem could be Basketball New Zealand employing Dickel to strictly develop guards so that we are able to bring along some intelligent players who pass and handle the ball well much like Dickel has done for many years. He could run a Mark Dickel Point Guard Camp similar to the Big Man Camp Stan Hill used to run. One thing Dickel has never been short on is confidence so maybe he could instil that in some of the youngsters coming through and we could see one or two point guards

There are rumours that Kevin Braswell is trying to gain citizenship to play for the Tall Blacks, at 32 he could offer enough to be a quick fix for a couple of years. There are even mumblings Cedric Jackson could be interested in representing the Tall Blacks however his unfinished business with the NBA may make it hard for him to live here long enough to gain the paperwork required to become a naturalized NZ player.

While we are experiencing the euphoria of the Breakers being on the verge of winning back to back NBL titles and the great game of basketball continues to reach such heights in New Zealand it is incredibly worrying that we are not producing a player capable of running the show, protecting the ball and distributing to all of the talented players the Tall Blacks will have at their disposal in the next few years.

Feel free to discuss this with me on twitter - @KahnJHart

Review: 2011-12 NBL Season

andrewbprice — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 02:09:39 +0000

By and large I think you could say this NBL season has been a success – especially if you’re a Wildcats or Breakers fan.

Here is my review of the season that’s been, where I think the NBL could look to improve for the coming season, and where I think they’ve done a good job. Obviously this is based on nothing more than my personal opinion, and if you want to add yours make sure you do in the comment section below.

Where the NBL has room for improvement in the coming season

#1 – Uniforms and merchandising

And1 is the official uniform supplier to the NBL, and this HAS to change. The jersey fabric is horrible, the collars don’t fit properly they spell the player’s names wrong on the back of their jersey (see photo) and it takes them about 4 months to make a game jersey. The Perth Wildcats played game one of the NBL Grand Finals (!) with tape over a sponsors name. The Townsville Crocodiles had change Todd Blanchfield’s number mid game because he had blood on his jersey and there was no spare.

This is a professional league and the company that supplies the uniforms needs to understand that. Fan’s want to wear their favorite players jersey and be proud of it, not worry that they look as though they’ve been printed from an ink jet printer.

#2 – Game, team and player analysis

The NBL does have a pre-game and post-game article for every game on their website, and this should be commended, it’s usually well written and informative. Most basketball fans however are used to the type of in-depth analysis seen in the NBA and even in most oval-ball sports in our country. I don’t care who the highest scoring player in the league is, most intelligent fans will understand that per-game stats are basically worthless.

What I’m asking for here, is not to change what is being done, but to further the good work, by involving real, intelligent basketball fans instead of just the casual fan. Let’s discuss plays being run by coaches, advanced statistics, game strategy and analyse player performance.

#3 – Game Officiating

I don’t think I’m alone in saying that the officiating this year has been questionable. There have been glaring inconsistencies all season and it’s driving fans, players and coaches crazy. I know it’s a tough job, but admitting there is a problem is the first step to recovery here. Points per game in the NBL has dropped this season again and it’s in no small part to the over zealous referees disrupting game flow. I watch my fair share of NBA games, and it’s rare to question a referees call in that league, they almost always get it right, and so they should. The NBL needs to review it’s referees training and evaluate whether or not it is sufficient for at this level of the game.

#4 – Video Content

This has been my major gripe with the NBL this season. The lack of video content available online for fans. It shouldn’t be too much to ask to have a highlight package from each game available for fans that may have missed the game or want to see it again. The NBA excels in this department, with commentated game highlights and interviews available online almost instantly after each game has finished. Now I realize the scale we’re talking about here, but uploading an edited video package online shouldn’t be a insurmountable task for the NBL.

Basketball is a game that attracts fans because of it’s highlight plays and excitement, and a box score and written post-game review simply doesn’t do it justice. I want to see that Jerai Grant dunk everyone is talking about, I want to see Bruton’s game winning three and the fight that broke out in the Cairns v Townsville game, not just read about it.

Also, uploading your ‘Plays of the Week’ the day before the next round starts, makes them the ‘Plays of Last Week’. Put them up Monday at the latest please, or I’m not interested.

If you want this currently, the guys over at Andthefoul.net do a great job making up for where the NBL falls short. Check out their youtube channel

Where the NBL has succeeded in 2011-12

#1 – Bringing in world class talent.

The NBL has seen an influx of high quality players over the past season, both in the form of star imports and top level local players. Jamar Wilson (Cairns), Cedric Jackson (New Zealand), Diamon Simpson (Adelaide) and MVP Kevin Lisch (Perth) have all excelled this season as have many of their local counterparts such as Cameron Tragardh (Melbourne), Tom Abercrombie (New Zealand), Peter Crawford (Townsville) and Damian Martin (Perth).

What makes this even more exciting for fans, is that players like Wilson are willing to resign long term with their teams rather than have a one season stint with their team. There is nothing more endearing in the world of international basketball than a top level import talent deciding to stay on with their team, it’s sadly a scarce phenomena. Only two imports resigned with their teams at the end of last season (Wilkinson and Lisch), for the sake of the league and it’s fans I hope this number continues to grow.

Retaining top talents, as well as nurturing young protégé’s such as Anatoly Bose and Jason Cadee should be a top priority for the league and it’s teams.

#2 – Social Media

Many may disagree with me on this sentiment, but I believe the NBL has done an admirable job of adopting social media over the course of the past season. Sites such as Facebook and Twitter should be viewed as essentially free promotion for the NBL and it’s teams. Every team has it’s own Twitter and Facebook account (check out this link for reviews of each) and some have adopted Youtube accounts to publish video content.

Social media is a crucial way of staying in contact with fans of the league and while by no means perfect, the NBL, it’s team’s and players have made a great effort this season to engage the fan at this level. Athough there is still much work to be done, it’s still a step in the right direction. The NBA has proven what can happen through successful implementation of a social media strategy and should be used as a model for our local league.

#3 – Game Coverage

Yes, yes, I know you Australian’s hate ONE HD and it’s delayed coverage of the NBL, and I don’t want to brag, but we actually have it pretty good over here in New Zealand. SkySport has once again put together a successful package for it’s NBL presentations, which are both live and have relevant and relatable commentary. All New Zealand Breakers home games have been played live this season in New Zealand as well as 1 – 2 other games from Australia.

The SkySport commentary team of Andrew Mulligan, Casey Frank and Dennis Katsanos have outdone their Australian counterparts tenfold with their relevant interviews, insightful and entertaining commentary and intelligent opinion and analysis.

As far as the ONE HD package is concerned Steve Carfino, Brendan ‘you baker’ Joyce could be replaced by someone who has never watched a game of basketball in their lives and be more relevant. Andrew Gaze, Tony Ronaldson, Brett Maher and even Shane Heal on the other hand have been relativity inoffensive and in some cases entertaining too.

Sure, the delayed coverage in Australia has been less than ideal, but from a New Zealand perspective, they’re on the right track.

5 things there should be MORE of next season:

Dunking, Mobile Content, Merchandise, Talented Rookies, Jerai Grant.

5 things there should be LESS of next season:

Music during games, Steve Carfino, Placid Big Men, Referees, Patty Mills.

Where do you think the NBL could improve, or what did you think was done well this season? Weigh in on the comments below

Crawford Shouldn’t Have Done It: A Rebuttal

Jono Hutchison — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 03:22:45 +0000

There should be more writing about the NBL in the style of Jason Prijepolje’s polemic on Crawfordgate. Robust arguments are a great aspect of sport analysis and I’m all for some voracious opinion when it’s warranted. This issue has certainly been a divisive one and I’m glad it’s being articulated.

Apart from the personal attacks, I thoroughly enjoyed reading Jason’s article. But I think he’s wrong.

There is such a thing as a dangerous foul in basketball – there is a name and penalty for it too, and the refs called Crawford on that. Rightly so.

The rules are in place for a reason. Sure, injuries are part of the game and it’s silly to get too precious, but Crawford’s move was dangerous and the outcome could easily have been more serious. Even rugby league has a few rules concerning safety. If you think hard fouls are always good fouls you should stick to streetball, or maybe just video games.

I agree that players should keep fighting despite being the underdog but that doesn’t mean playing dangerously. There is no way you can block a runaway dunk at that speed without a serious collision. You can tell that when you’re sprinting (not that I ever dunk or block like that!).

I certainly don’t think Crawford meant to injure, but a professional player should be held to account for hazardous play. It happens in other sports.

It’s really not that surprising that the NZ fans reacted passionately to the foul – anyone follows a team closely and who’s been to a game knows how caught up in the moment you can get. You feel the players’ frustrations with the refs and you wince when they get knocked down. Abercrombie reacted angrily at first and it’s not hard to see why the fans did too.

But, as Jason rightly points out, Abercrombie got over it and we should too. Crawford apologised and I respect him for that. Let’s move on.

While I wouldn’t like to see another dangerous foul, even on Redhage, we can all agree it will be great to see that guy shut down in a big way.

Next.

See the foul here:

Get Over It NZ

jasonprijepolje — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 01:43:14 +0000

Everyone needs to get over that foul on Tom Abercrombie. He went for a dunk and SHOCK HORROR… Peter Crawford, his OPPONENT… tried to prevent that dunk.

Abercrombie, unfortunately for him and NZ, landed awkwardly and has done his ankle in. But where I come from, and pretty much where anyone comes from who plays basketball you NEVER let a man dunk it with ease. That’s why, and this is for @prestonjscott (a kiwi tweeter who I think smashes his face on a keyboard for a website in NZ), in basketball they are called… good fouls.

NZ took to twitter to cry their eyes out that one of their star players was injured as if Peter Crawford was a dastardly villain who tried to hang Abercrombie from the hoop and slice his face off. Quite the contrary as at the time, Crocodile Crawford first and quite rightly, appealed the poor decision to call it an unsportsmanlike foul and secondly apologised to Abercrombie for what was an accident.

I’ll admit the game was over, but I defy any professional sportsman worth their salt to not keep trying when a spot in the finals are slipping away from you.

Thankfully the Breakers aren’t as stupid as some of their fans (I’m looking at you @prestonjscott) and I saw a piece on New Zealand’s TV3 news where old faithful Dillon Boucher said he would have done the same, and Abercrombie himself having seen the replay had no complaints with Crawford’s ‘effort play’.

So the Breakers take on Perth this week without a 100% fit star swingman. It sucks for them, but that’s professional sports. I really hope the Breakers don’t become one of those clubs that feel a sense of entitlement because they can win a championship (or two). They are a likeable club, and I wouldn’t some idiot fans to ruin that.

Having said that… let’s hope someone ‘Crawfords’ Shawn Redhage on Thursday.

Next.

See the foul here:

Click here to read the other side of the argument

There Will Be Blood

andrewbprice — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 05:04:38 +0000

It’s been a very long time since I’ve had a chance to sit down and write an feature for this little website, and I apologise for not making my opinions accessible during this, the most important time of the season (unless you follow me on twitter – to those I apologise for making my opinions too accessible)

I hope you all enjoyed the NBL semi finals series as much as I did. All four teams played a fantastic set of games, with no team going down in a clean sweep. There were a few nervous moments (especially if you’re a New Zealand fan) as well as some moments of glory (Worthington’s dunks, Mims’ block on Boucher, even a Luke Neville dunk etc).

Now we are left now with the two team’s I think everybody expected to see in the finals – Perth and New Zealand.

The Perth v New Zealand rivalry may be fairly new when compared to others in the NBL, but there is no doubt it has been the most important for the past 2 seasons at least. There is no love lost between these two teams, or their fans. I’m sure Wildcats fans despise Gary Wilkinson as much as New Zealand fans hate Shawn Redhage – and that’s what makes this series so tense and so magnificent. It culminated last season with a blow to the face of Mika Vukona from then import Andre Brown (watch here – it’s brilliant) and if I were a betting man I’d say there will be a similar altercation this time around too.

Anyway, I’m getting ahead of myself…

Let’s break down how the two top teams in the competition have matched up with each other this season so far:

Breakers v Wildcats Series
SERIES TEAM STATS
	Breakers	Wildcats
Points Scored	246	262
Average Points Scored	82.00	87.33
FG Attempts	187	215
FG Made	87	93
3P Made	23	18
Off Rebounds	27	36
Def Rebounds	71	74
Turnovers	52	46
FT Attempts	74	67
Free Throws Made	40	53
Fouls	76	73
Assists	53	53
Games Played	3	3
Overtime Games	1	1
Advanced Stats
	Breakers	Wildcats
Possessions	241.94	241.94
Average Possessions	77.36	77.11
Total Minutes Played	625.00	625.00
Pace	77.42
Offensive Rating	101.68	108.29
Defensive Rating	108.29	101.68
Difference	-6.61	6.61
Assist %	14%	14%
Turnover %	16%	13%
True Shooting %	56%	54%
Effective Field Goal %	53%	47%
Free Throw Rate	39.57	31.16
Offensive Rebound Rate	26.73	33.64
Defensive Rebound Rate	66.36	73.27

The Breakers won the regular season series 2 – 1 over the Wildcats, helped in part to the fact they played 2 out of 3 of the games on their home court. However thanks to the blow-out win the Wildcats scored over the Breakers in their first meeting, the Wildcats are actually averaging better stats across the series than the Breakers (with the exception of shooting).

Below is a comparison of the Breakers and Wildcats number across all the games they have played so far this season.

TEAM	Offense	Defense	TO %	AST %	FT Rate	eFG%	TS%	O Reb	D Reb	STL %	BLK %	Pace
Breakers	111.0	96.6	13.9%	13.3%	29.4	51.9%	54.9%	37.8	72.2	8.7	6.6	76.5
Wildcats	108.7	102.0	12.6%	14.3%	28.2	49.4%	53.4%	34.2	68.1	10.4	8.2	79.1

These numbers show the Breakers to have had a better overall season than the Wildcats. Something you would no doubt expect from a team that won the minor premiership. But there a few stats that are of interest for this series for you to keep an eye on:

Rebounding: The Breakers are the #1 rebounding team in the NBL at both the defensive and offensive ends of the court, but they have not rebounded well against the Wildcats this season. The Cats actually own both the rebounding stats in the series over the Breakers, despite being ranked 4th in offensive rebounding on the season and 5th in defensive rebounding.

Offense: The Wildcats have the NBL’s second best offense, with a rating of 108.7 – a number which is almost identical to their offensive rating in the series v the Breakers. The Breakers on the other hand have the NBL’s best offense (111.0) but, when playing the Wildcats they have averaged well under this number (101.68). This is mostly likely due to the Wildcats’ defense rather than the Breakers lacking offense in these situations.

Fouls: Both of these teams are extremely physical teams, and this is magnified even further when playing each other. Players like Boucher, Redhage, Robbins and Vukona need to stay out of foul trouble while still playing the defense that makes them such a threat.

Bench: Not really a stat, I know – but these two teams have two of highest scoring benches in the league (along with Gold Coast). The ability to pull players like Bruton, Pledger, Boucher, Wagstaff, Robbins and Knight off the bench is something most team’s would only dream about.

Stats are one thing, but the main thing a casual fan should take away from these numbers is that the NBL Grand Finals will be an amazing series between the two stand out teams in the competition this year. The teams match up so well player to player, and the Perth / New Zealand rivalry has never been stronger.

There will be blood.

The MVP debate.

jasonprijepolje — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 22:45:42 +0000

There shouldn’t be one.

Last year the NBL let themselves down like a balloon in a crack house when Gary Ervin was named MVP. The Wollongong Hawk was impressive in his one and only season down under but if you can’t guide your team to the playoffs, which he didn’t, then you can’t be the league’s most valuable player. You can be the league’s best player sure, I mean… he wasn’t, but you can’t be the most valuable.

Ervin then went on to display as much class as the Perth Wildcats owner*, when he took to twitter to hit back at fans over in New Zealand who, rightfully in my opinion, thought their man Kirk Penney should have taken out his second Andrew Gaze trophy.

The MVP voting system is complicated, as complicated as a doctor explaining to a man with the name Hodgkin that he’s diagnosing him with Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. So if you don’t know how it works, look it up. In a broad and vague nutshell it involves voting after each regular season game on how you think a player played against you. Basically, it’s wrong.

The MVP should be decided by a panel of experts. I’m thinking Gaze himself, Larry Sengstock etc… and give each head coach a vote… and it should be done at the end of the regular season, not while it’s being played. They should immediately disregard a team that hasn’t made the playoffs, and then they should choose the player that has been most valuable in getting his team to the top four.

Now I’m not saying I should be on this panel (I mean I’d be great), I’m not saying I know who should get it this year (Jackson or Lisch) but I am saying that if a player outside the top four teams gets it, I’m going to throw Shawn Redhage at them.

Literally, because the decision would be an abomination, and because I cannot stand Shawn Redhage.

Next.

*The Wildcats owner reportedly told his clubs courtside announcer to make it known the refs were cheats after their loss to the Breakers in round 22.

Is The NBL Equitable?

andrewbprice — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 07:54:12 +0000

Editor: This post was written by Ben Fitzsimons; Basketball junkie and one time Adelaide 36ers CEO. Ben is a regular contributor to lobpasstoabercrombie and is often featured here sharing his thoughts and experience.

The NBL is coming to another cracker of a conclusion.
The finals aren’t that far away and the make up of the top 4 teams is yet to be decided. From here it looks like another season where the last game of the year could decide the fate of finals

The regular season is not equitable though.

A 28 game season with 9 teams means there will always be an odd number of games played between teams.

Until this is remedied then the final make up of the ladder will always be flawed. This season the worst team is the Wollongong Hawks. Perth will play them 3 times while the top of the ladder Breakers play them 4 times. In this instance and simplistically the Breakers have an advantage. An advantage that could turn into hosting the finals on your home court, something that every team desires.

In a league where making the finals can come down to percentage, having teams playing odd games is not right and should be addressed.

If a team misses out on playoffs, the ramifications across the board can be huge financially. Lost finals revenue, potentially disenchanted members and sponsors could tally up to hundreds of thousands in lost income for the team concerned. And in the world of sports every dollar into a club is important.

My solution is based on the current 9 teams.

The simple solution is to cut the schedule to a 3 games series between each team. This would mean 24 games in total. This is not an ideal solution as each team would suffer the loss of 2 home games. Again, the financials of spreading the running costs of a team over as many games as possible is a factor. ( Ever wondered why the NBA runs an 82 games season?) *On a side note there are some players in the NBL that are not far off being paid NBA money if you work out payments on a per game basis.

Simply increase the amount of games back to 32 as we saw years ago or create something with a little more flavour and interest.

The solution for mine is to split the ladder and schedule based on previous seasons results. The bottom 5 teams would play each other 4 times for 16 games. They would then play the top 4 teams 3 times for 12 games giving us the 28 game season.

The top 4 teams would play 12 games against the “div2” teams and then would play each other 4 times giving us 24 games. The remaining 4 games would be split over 1 v 4 and 2 v 3 series decider games.

I think this would add some increased rivalry as well as bring equality for the table. E don’t have a draft system in the NBL to cycle clubs through periods of success. For me this would help the lesser clubs compete and improve. Their reward for success is playing against higher calibre competitors which in turn would mean extra ticket sales.

A few years back the 36ers finished bottom. Their reward next year was to play the grand finalists of that season 4 times each, the only club that had this extra challenge to win.

I think a revamped schedule would increase the competitiveness of the league as well as protect the less financial teams in the league.

What are your thoughts on the current NBL schedule? Let us know in the comment section below

Good On Ya Bevo

andrewbprice — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 07:01:23 +0000

This post was lovingly penned by our newest contributor Jason Prijepolje. Jason is an up and coming sports writer and is well versed in all things NBL.

Are the NBL referees good enough?

No.

There are many things the NBL needs to do to be taken more seriously; sort out television coverage is the main one, close behind is up the quality of refereeing.

The big wigs out west at the Perth Wildcats will be thanking Coach Rob Beveridge for attracting a cool $3000 fine for what the league call ‘Public Criticism’.

It may be $3000 worth paying if the comments Beveridge made, comments like, “Down the other end Kev (Lische) gets fouled, totally fouled 100 per cent, and everybody in the place knew it was a foul, including New Zealand, and that would have put us to win the game right there, but they choked on their whistles” get some results. ‘Bevo’ is a well respected man in the basketball community and when he talks, most listen.

Add to that, the thing is; he’s right. The refs aren’t good enough, and what’s more when a match isn’t shown on TV, they’re even worse. It’s like they shine their whistles when they know Mummy is watching at home. I understand controlling a pro sports game is no walk in the park, but they don’t have to make it look like a walk in some porridge.

Admittedly, Perth normally receive the furry side of the referees velcro at home, with their opponents normally slapped with the spiky hooks of injustice, but that doesn’t mean Bevo shouldn’t complain. From all accounts, they were shafted on occasion in their game with New Zealand, a game that has potentially cost them home court advantage for the playoffs. I’d spit the dummy all over the referees back if I was the Coach.

More should complain if things are shoddy too. Andrej Lemanis isn’t afraid to open his yap, and if the NBL complain-train stopped at a few more stations before it reached HQ in Melbourne then things may actually change. Instead, the NBL are now cupping both balls because two refs were selected to officiate at the Olympics, even though that’s a given so this corner of the world is represented.

If this year’s finals are decided by a weak refereeing decision, then the cries will be, “Why didn’t the NBL act sooner?” Until the television coverage and refereeing is sorted out, don’t bother welcoming new teams to the league, it’s only going to attract more soon-to-be disgruntled fans.

Next.

The LPTA Countdown – Point Guards

andrewbprice — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 10:00:19 +0000

Everyone loves lists, so I present to you the first in the five part series, counting down the top five player at each position in the NBL this season.

These lists are ranked based on a number of factors as well as personal opinion. Feel free to weigh in below in the comments to let me know if you agree or disagree.

Lets begin:

I’ve weighted point guards heavily on the assists and true shooting percentages, while paying close attention to their turnovers and efficiency

1. Cedric Jackson (New Zealand Breakers)

AST% – 28.46
TO% – 14.23
TS% – 48.14
REB% – 11.00
Usage Rate: 23.00%
PER – 19.36
Estimated Wins Added: 2.77

Damian Martin called him an ‘ unbelievable point guard’ and in a league dominated by import guards, Cedric Jackson has certainly risen to the top of the heap.

Sure, there are point guards – such as Wilson and Deleon that shoot better than Jackson, but none run a team with the same finese. Jackson (thankfully) doesn’t rely on his ability to score to win games, but rather creates open looks for his team mates and headaches for his opposing point guards.

You don’t need to look much further than Jackson leading the league in two of the most critical stat categories (assists and steals) for a point guard to understand what he brings to the team. This is evident in the fact that when the Breakers lose Jackson averages only 2 assist – in a win he averages 8.

2. Adris Deleon (Gold Coast Blaze)

AST% – 13.76
TO% – 14.07
TS% – 52.13
REB% – 9.00
Usage Rate: 27.40%
PER – 18.60
Estimated Wins Added: 1.68

Many, including myself questioned the Blaze’s thinking when they brought in Deleon to replace Mike English at the start of the season. Didn’t they already have a quality point guard in Adam Gibson?

Deleon however has proved himself as a masterful ball handler and knock down shooter.

Super fast, and with handles to rival even Allen Iverson, Deleon has taken awhile to find his place within the Blaze offense, but is now a mismatch for most point guards, as staying in front of Deleon has proven to be a difficult task this season.

Deleon has the highest usage rate of any of the point guards on this list, meaning the team relies heavily on him to create and score in their offense, despite having a number of capable pieces around him.

3. Jamar Wilson (Cairns Taipans)

AST% – 13.80
TO% – 13.80
TS% – 55.35
REB% – 9.00
Usage Rate: 24.29%
PER – 17.34
Estimated Wins Added: 2.17

I think only Cairns fans had high hopes for their import point guard this season – and boy have they been rewarded for their trust.

Wilson has the second lowest turnover rate of any starting point guard this season, which is why his PER looks so good. He is also the best shooting point guard in the league this season.

It is no overstatement to say that the main reason Cairns are in the hunt for a playoff spot this season is due to Wilson. Let’s hope Cairns can hold on to this one in the offseason.

4. Damian Martin (Perth Wildcats)

AST% – 27.86
TO% – 11.26
TS% – 38.47
REB% – 11.00
Usage Rate: 14.05
PER – 14.94
Estimated Wins Added: 0.50

Yes, we do have a local on the list! Martin has become renown for his defense as a point guard, and if it weren’t for Jackson, I’d say he was the best perimeter defender in the league.

The difference between Martin and the other point guards on this list is that the Wildcats do not require him to play as significant role in the team’s offense and is therefore not as prominent in the stat categories as the other more flashy point guards. Martin has the lowest usage rate of any point guard in the league.

Despite this, only Jackson has a better assist rate for a point guard and like Jackson he rebounds incredibly well for his size. Martin is a huge presence on defense and can stop almost anyone who comes his way.

Eddie Gill (Townsville Crocodiles)

AST% – 21.25
TO% – 14.83
TS% – 52.57
REB% – 6.00
Usage Rate: 24.63%
PER – 16.61
Estimated Wins Added: 1.63

Gill has been a strong presence for the Crocs, bailing them out of more than one tight situation this season. He reminds me a lot of Chauncy Billups – and not just because of the hair cut.

Gill isn’t afraid to drop the clutch shots, and seems to thrive in tight situations. He’s an efficent floor general and although he doesn’t have the same kind of assist rate as his contemporaries is an invaluable presence on the court for the Crocs.

It’s his efficiency that gets him on the list though, he’s a clever veteran and knows when to shoot and when to pass. The Crocs wouldn’t have the record they do without him.

Next up: The Top 5 Shooting Guards

Projecting Wins, Pythagoras Style

andrewbprice — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 21:17:16 +0000

At this stage in the season, all teams have about 8 – 10 games left in their schedule. First and second place are basically sealed between the New Zealand Breakers and the Perth Wildcats, but what about the rest of the pack, how will they end up come play off time?

I’m not usually in the habit of fortune telling, but when stats are involved I will usually make an exception.

I’ve used the pythagorean winning percentage method to project what is a ‘best guess’ of how the regular season will pan out.

Pythagorean expectation was developed essentially as a baseball stat and predicts wins based on the number of runs a team scores and allows, the formula is as follows:

Win = runs scored^2/(runs scored^2 + runs allowed^2)

This relatively simple formula generates a percentage expectation of the frequency of wins for a team. It’s actually relativity accurate too, although there has been some debate over the use of ’2′ as the exponent in the equation (apparently 1.81 is possibly more accurate…)

Anyway, enough about baseball.

Of course over time, the stat was developed for basketball and put to use predicting wins in the NBA by analysts. The adapted formula for basketball is:

Win = points scored^13.91/(points scored^13.91 + points allowed^13.91)

The above formula was developed by Daryl Morey, who is the current general manager of the Houston Rockets, although he wasn’t when he came up with that.

Since then, as with baseball, there has been debate over whether or not 13.91 is the appropriate exponent for the equation. John Hollinger from ESPN as well as a number of other analysts use 16.5 in their calculations.

For my calculations using this formula, I have gone with 16.5 as my exponent, I have also used the team’s offensive/defensive ratings (see the numbers here) instead of simply points scored/allowed. Essentially the changing of the exponent with only 8-10 games to go will have little effect on the same result.

Projected End of Season Standings:

Team	Played	Remaining	Won	Lost	Percent Won	Projected Wins	Projected Record
Breakers	20	8	15	5	75.0%	22	78%
Wildcats	20	8	14	6	70.0%	19	66%
Blaze	18	10	10	8	55.6%	17	59%
Crocodiles	18	10	10	8	55.6%	15	52%
Taipans	20	8	11	9	55.0%	14	51%
Tigers	22	6	10	12	45.5%	12	44%
Kings	20	8	8	12	40.0%	10	36%
Hawks	19	9	5	14	26.3%	7	25%
36ers	19	9	5	14	26.3%	7	25%

There were two ways to approach these results. Firstly using the pythagorean method across the entire season and giving the expected wins, or (and this is what I did) simply taking the team’s current record as concrete and projecting the remaining games for the team.

So there we have it. New Zealand should be expected to win another minor premiership, and play Townsville in the first round of the playoffs. Perth and Gold Coast are projected to battle it out for the other finals spot.

I’m not going to go ahead and make any bold predictions about who will and won’t win the championship, although I’m sure you all know where I stand.

Of course, like predicting the weather, this method is only a guide – and so I am not guaranteeing these results to be the final standings, but rather a ‘best guess’ based on the current form of teams.